In December 2017, I made seven predictions of what I thought would happen with credit cards and hotel loyalty schemes during 2018. Several other blogs were doing the same thing, so I thought it’d be fun to gaze into my crystal ball as well.
Now that it’s almost 2019, it’s time to look back and see how well – or how badly – I did. Here are the results of my predictions for 2018.
Prediction 1 – Marriott Added As A Membership Rewards Transfer Partner
Result – Correct
I wasn’t really pushing the boat out with this one. Marriott had taken over SPG and you could transfer points between the two loyalty schemes before they’d fully merged.
At the time, SPG was a transfer partner for Membership Rewards (points you can collect with some American Express cards). That meant you could already transfer Membership Rewards to SPG and then on to Marriott, so my prediction was simply that American Express would remove the first step and let you transfer directly to Marriott.
That did indeed happen when the Starwood Preferred Guest and Marriott Rewards loyalty schemes became one in August 2018.
Prediction 2 – La Quinta To Launch A New Credit Card
Result – Incorrect
I feel like my reasoning for this prediction was solid. La Quinta used to have a co-branded credit card issued by FNBO but that partnership ended. Every major hotel chain has at least one co-branded credit card, so I couldn’t imagine La Quinta would remain without one for long.
Events overtook my predictions though. Wyndham announced they were buying La Quinta and they’re in the process of merging their loyalty schemes. Similar to Marriott and SPG, you can now transfer points between Wyndham and La Quinta.
The La Quinta credit card I predicted therefore never materialized. Wyndham Rewards already has a couple of credit cards issued by Barclays, so there was no point in them launching a short-lived card for La Quinta given that it would soon become just one more of Wyndham’s brands.
Prediction 3 – IHG To Add Benefits To Spire Elite Status
Result – Incorrect
This one wasn’t just wishful thinking – I genuinely thought they’d do something to improve their loyalty benefits.
I was wrong.
No changes were made to Spire Elite status, not even offering guaranteed room upgrades. As a result, this made it on to my 2019 hotel wishlist.
Prediction 4 – Chase Will Increase The Number Of Cards Not Impacted By 5/24
Result – Couldn’t Have Been More Wrong
Not only did Chase not reduce the number of cards affected by 5/24, they increased the number of cards affected. Thankfully I applied for the new IHG Premier credit card before that change came in, but it put paid to getting that card for Shae too.
In case you’re wondering, 5/24 refers to Chase’s rules for getting a new credit card. If you’ve opened 5+ credit cards in the last 24 months, they won’t approve you for a new card. This rule used to only be applied to some of their cards, but they appear to have recently expanded the rule to include most – if not all – of their credit cards.
Prediction 5 – Hyatt Will Allow Rewards Stays To Count As Eligible Nights Towards Status
Result – Correct
I got a little lucky with the timing for this one. I published my prediction post on December 15, 2017 and less than two weeks later, Hyatt announced that award stays would count as qualifying nights towards status.
That change was announced a few days before 2018, so I’m glad I hadn’t held off on publishing my predictions until the New Year.
This change greatly benefited us as it meant all our award stays over the past year helped me earn Globalist status.
Prediction 6 – IHG Will Increase The Annual Fee On Their Credit Card
Result – Incorrect, Sort Of
I’d like to claim a win for this one, but strictly speaking I was incorrect. In 2018, IHG introduced a brand new credit card which did indeed have a higher annual fee ($89 vs $49). Not only that, but the new card only offers a free night each anniversary year worth 40,000 points rather than a free night at any IHG property. The thing is, existing cardholders can retain their old cards with the $49 annual fee. That means my specific prediction was wrong.
My reasoning for the increased fee was that the free night at any property each year was too good a benefit to last. That reasoning was correct. Unfortunately for the purposes of my prediction, rather than increasing the $49 annual fee, they instead changed the free night benefit on this card from 2019. The old credit card will therefore only offer a free night up to 40,000 points as well.
Chase and IHG have therefore devalued the old card, but by reducing the benefits rather than increasing the annual fee. Still, paying a $49 annual fee for a free hotel night at a property worth up to 40,000 points is still great value.
Prediction 7 – Citi Will Launch / Relaunch Spending Offers On Their Credit Cards
Result – Incorrect
To the best of my knowledge, Citi hasn’t increased spending offers to match Amex Offers. In fact, it was Chase that rolled out Chase Offers to all their personal cards.
Final Results
Unfortunately my predictions ended in a 2/7 result; I guess my crystal ball needs some polishing. Despite doing so badly with my predictions for the past year, I’ll be making some more predictions for 2019. Stay tuned for those predictions in the next few days.
[…] enough, this is the same score I got last year – apparently I’m not very good at this predictions thing! I’ll be trying my hand […]