At the end of last year I made seven predictions for what I thought 2019 would bring in the world of hotel and airline loyalty programs, along with travel credit cards.
You can check out the original predictions list here where I also explained the reasons why I thought each of those changes might happen. Seeing as we’re nearing the end of the year, I thought I’d take a look back to see how my predictions fared.
Spoiler alert: they didn’t fare very well.
1) Hyatt Will Devalue Award Nights
Result – Correct (For The Most Part) = 1
I’m going to award myself the win for this one as Hyatt recently announced that they’ll be changing the pricing for award nights. The good thing is that although award nights have the potential to become more expensive, they’ll also have the potential to become cheaper.
For example, we’ve stayed ~80 nights at Hyatt properties this year, most of which were category 1 Hyatt Places that cost 5,000 points per night. With this coming change, category 1 properties will charge one of three prices:
- Off-peak = 3,500 points
- Standard = 5,000 points
- Peak = 6,500 points
As you can see, the standard price isn’t changing, but peak and off-peak prices being introduced means they might cost less or more. In reality, we can probably expect peak prices to be more prevalent than off-peak which is why I’m classing this as a devaluation of the World of Hyatt program, although the changes are nowhere near as bad as they could’ve been.
Shae and I might actually benefit from this change. We don’t tend to visit locations during peak times, so I’m hoping we’ll more commonly encounter standard and off-peak pricing. If that turns out to be the case, we’ll pay less for award nights which would be awesome as 3,500 points for a free night is a steal.
2) Hyatt Will Introduce A 4th Or 5th Night Free Benefit On Award Stays
Result: Incorrect (For The Most Part) = 0
I might’ve been overly generous awarding myself a win with the first prediction, but I’ve been less generous with this one even though you could argue that I got it partially correct, albeit indirectly.
Hyatt didn’t introduce a 4th or 5th night free benefit on award stays which is why I think my prediction was incorrect. However, the introduction of off-peak pricing has resulted in a 4th or 5th night free benefit of sorts.
We’ll use category 1 properties again as an example. In the past, staying 5 nights at a category 1 property would cost 25,000 points. If you stay 5 nights at a property when it’s charging the off-peak price, it’ll cost 17,500 which is like getting the 5th night (plus half the 4th night) free.
Ultimately though, it’s not an official 4th or 5th night free benefit like I predicted and so I’m awarding myself zero points.
3) Avianca LifeMiles Will Become A Chase Transfer Partner
Result: Incorrect = 0
You can transfer points from Amex Membership Rewards, Citi ThankYou, Marriott Bonvoy and Capital One, so I figured that Chase Ultimate Rewards would join the fray this year. Barring some kind of announcement in the next 10 days, I was wrong about this.
4) United And/Or American Airlines Will Introduce Basic Economy Awards
Result: Incorrect = 0
This is one that I’m happy to be wrong about. Delta introduced Basic Economy awards when redeeming your SkyMiles last year and where Delta goes, United and American Airlines usually follow. That hasn’t happened though…yet.
5) Chase Offers Will Start Offering Bonus Points/Miles
Result: Incorrect = 0
This was more a case of wishful thinking than anything else. Chase does seem to have increased the number of Chase Offers out there and has also rolled the program out to business credit cards, but they’re still only offering statement credits rather than bonus points/miles.
6) Hilton To Introduce Some Kind Of Award Sales
Result: Incorrect = 0
Several hotel and airline loyalty programs offer some kind of award sales every month or every quarter. I thought that Hilton might start doing the same, but alas not.
7) Marriott Will Continue Offering Lackluster Promotions
Result: Correct = 1
I almost feel like I cheated by including this prediction because Marriott continuing to offer lackluster promotions each quarter seemed like such a sure thing. I’d been hopeful that I would be proven wrong on this one so that paid stays with Marriott would earn more bonus points, but they sadly lived up down to my expectations.
Total = 2 / 7 Correct
Funnily enough, this is the same score I got last year – apparently I’m not very good at this predictions thing! I’ll be trying my hand at it again this coming week though, so stay tuned for that.
[…] results haven’t been great as I only scored 2/7 last year and got the same score the year before that. Despite not doing so well on either attempt, I figured […]